There's a lot on the ballot this year, but it isn't all of equal importance. If you want to know how to rank things, here's my crack at it.
1. The Senate - If Democrats can win either house in Congress would shut down Trump's legislative agenda (which is not particularly brisk now) AND allow them to control Congressional investigations and oversight. But Senate control brings with it additional control of the courts and the executive through the power to confirm/or not confirm judges and members of the president's cabinet - including Supreme Court justices. This makes Senate control more important than House control, and why it is #1. One third of the Senate seats are up for grabs and Democrats will need to pick up two to take control and one to have a chance due to a vacancy. Theoretically, Democrats could win both the MN and MS special election seats and create a tie by early December, making those two seats slightly more important than others, but MS is unlikely and a tie doesn't do much for them unless they can peel off a senator here and there. If Democrats win the House, the Senate is partially redundant, but it's still #1 because of judges and appointees.
2. If GOP wins the Senate, the House - If the GOP wins the Senate, then the House becomes critical because it will either create or prevent single party rule for two more years. Every single House seat is up for re-election.]
3. Florida Voting Rights Restoration Initiative - This Florida ballot initiative would restore voting rights to an estimated 1.5 million people in Florida. While it wouldn't kick in until 2019, it could result in a net gain of 100,000 Democratic voters in 2020. Enough to change the state's outcome in the 2000 and 2016 presidential elections (and thus the winner in 2000), the last two Governor races, the 2004 Senate race and likely dozens of other House, state and local races.
4. Governors with a role in redistricting - There are 34 governors up for re-election in 2018. Most of them will play a role in redistricting after 2020, all of them will be able to impact the electorate in the 2020 presidential election (through purges of the voting rolls or decisions about where to place polls and when to keep them open). Some of these could create or destroy a "trifecta". A trifecta is when a single party controls the house, senate and governorship of a state. Ranking them based on their size, swing status and trifecta vulnerability and I rank them as such.
a. Trifectas - FL, PA, NY, IL, OH, GA, MI, WI, MN, MA, TN, MD, CO, OR, OK, KS,NM, IA, RI, NV, ME, NH
b. Others - TX, IN, SC, AL, AR, NE
6. State legislatures with a role in redistricting. There are several state legislatures up for election, but only some play a part in redistricting. Some of these could create or destroy a "trifecta". Ranking them based on their size, swing status and trifecta vulnerability and I rank them as such.
a. Trifectas - FL, PA, NY, IL, OH, GA, NC, MI, WI, MN-H, MA, TN, MD, CO, OR, OK, CT, IA, NV, KS, WV, NH, RI, MT
b. Others - TX, IN, MO, SC-H, AL, KY, AR, UT, NE-S, ME
7. Other Governors - Not all governors have a role in redistricting, but they do have oversight over elections, can appoint replacement senators, call elections to fill empty house seats and other such items. I've ranked them considering size (more seats impacted) and swing status.
a. Trifectas - AZ, CT, SD, AK, VT
b. Others - CA, HI, ID, WY
8. Other state legislatures - State legislatures can pass laws that change the electorate through voter ID or motor voter laws, for example, even if they don't have anything to do with redistricting. I've ranked them considering size and swing status. SD, AK-H, VT, WY. In addition a special election in Virginia could swing the House of Delegates into shared control.
a. Trifectas - WA, AZ, NM-H, NH, MT, DE, SD, AK-H, VT
b. Others - WY
9. North Carolina Ballot Initiatives - Three ballot initiatives in NC are being considered. One takes the power to appoint members of election boards and commissions away from the Governor and give it to leaders in the state House and Senate. The second weakens the amount of influence the Governor has in filling state Supreme Court vacancies and increases the legislature's. Both of these initiatives exist to weaken the power of the Democratic Governor and strengthen the Republican legislature. They would also weaken the election board by keeping it perpetually deadlocked. The third ballot measure creates a voter ID law.
10. If Dems win the Senate, the House - If Democrats win the Senate, then the House becomes redundant. But it would act as insurance in case a death or resignation puts the Senate back in play. And they would be able to carry out their own investigations and place added legislative pressure on or support for the President.
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