Tuesday, November 27, 2018

Normal is Over: What Democrats should do if they take power

I started writing this post before David Faris' book It's Time to Fight Dirty: How Democrats Can Build a Lasting Majority in American Politics came out, but I still admit there's a lot of overlap (great minds and all). The premise of the book is that Republicans have decided to abandon all norms and all courtesies in an effort to score as many wins as possible; that, for now, they're burdened only by the law and even that not entirely; and that Democrats need to play by those rules or find themselves forever a majority of the populace holding a minority of the power.

I agree with his general principal and would argue that this started in 2000 during the recount fight - that Democrats decided to fight that for the just outcome (deciding, for example, not to contest overseas ballots from service members that were postmarked late) and the GOP had decided to win at all cost. For example, on the day that Bush v. Gore was decided, the GOP-controlled Florida legislature was meeting in special session to pass a bill that would award all of Florida's electoral college votes to Bush, bypassing the outcome of the actual vote and making it unnecessary. That was the beginning of their "just win" procedural war.

I agree with much of what Faris wrote. That there are a lot of things that Democrats can do, things that happen to align well with their values, that would strengthen their hand in later elections and that would be legal, fair and within the rules. Mostly these things make it easier for people - likely Democratic voters - to vote. Greater ballot access is already a Democratic ideal? And I agree with most of his proposals. Even the idea of breaking up California into multiple states, while extremely unlikely, has merit. But most importantly, I agree that the danger of doing this is in half-heartedly doing it. Starting down this path without going all the way will allow Republicans to hold out until they can swing the pendulum back and hit back hard. If on the other hand they can go all in, then they can use their position of equity, or even power, to force Republicans to accept the codification of some norms in rules and laws. Faris says, for example, that Democrats could offer to amend the constitution so that the longest-serving justice must retire in every odd year. I'd say expand the court first, and then push the amendment with a promise to let the court revert back to 9 judges once passed.

Below is a list of procedural changes Democrats should pursue if they find themselves in complete control in 2020, and the order in which to get rid of them.

1. Get rid of the Filibuster - The filibuster protects GOP priorities more than it does Democratic ones. The GOP doesn't want to pass that many laws - as witnessed by the last two years - and most of the things the GOP does want to do, it can do with reconciliation. The filibuster was never meant to be part of the process, will only stand in the way of Democratic objectives (as it did in 2010) and must go in order for them to do what they need to do.
2. Expand the Supreme Court - Yes, this is packing the court and it didn't work for FDR, but that was a different time. Adding two judges makes up for the unprecedented blocking of Merrick Garland. This would have been more politically justifiable if Reid or Biden had warned Republicans in 2016 that blocking Obama's picks would leave them no choice, but we are where we are. This needs to happen early because Democrats need a court that won't overturn everything, they earned one, and this is how they get it back. Note that if they do this, and the current SCOTUS overturns that law, then we have already lost our democracy.
2. Statehood for DC and Puerto Rico - The Democratic party has already said it supports statehood for these two. DC's residents had a vote supporting statehood. Puerto Rico's delegate introduced a law asking for statehood - which got bipartisan support. Not only is right to give millions of disenfranchised Americans a say in the federal government, but it will likely add 3 to 4 Democratic Senators, a net gain of Democratic house members, and a few extra votes in the electoral college
4. Pass a New Voting Rights Act - The Supreme Court gutted the Voting Rights Act in 2013 getting rid of the "preclearance" requirement for areas with histories of racial discrimination. But it only did so because the formula for preclearance was old. If Congress passed a law with a new formula, preclearance would be back. Alternatively, they could just require every jurisdiction to be subject to preclearance. In addition, they could invalidate voter ID laws, make registration automatic, end felon disenfranchisement but for the most serious of crimes (many felons just haven't paid court fees), National Election Day Holiday, mandatory voting access (how far and how long), bring every state under review by the Justice Department
5. Immigration reform with a path to citizenship- As Farris wrote "Republicans have always feared that immigration would change the character of American society. Democrats should reward them with their very worst nightmare.”  Democrats support immigration reform. They support a path to citizenship. In fact so do most Americans. Giving people who have lived here for years without causing any trouble a way to become full citizens is the right thing to do. It just so happens it would create millions of new voters, the majority of which would then vote for Democrats.
6. Prison Sentence Reform - Another large group of Americans who can't vote are in prison. This is not true everywhere as the incarcerated can vote in both Maine and Vermont, but it is true in most places. There are 14 states and DC that allow people on parole or probation to vote and 21 that restore voting rights once incarceration is over. So getting people out of prison and off parole will create more voters. And guess what, there is wide, bipartisan support for reforming prison sentencing by creating shorter sentences and giving judges greater discretion. In fact Democrats and Republicans might be able to pass a law or laws on this before 2021. A majority of the people serving long sentences for non-violent crimes will vote for Democrats, just as the majority of those who can't vote because of past crimes would vote for Democrats.
7. Expand the House - The number of constituents per house member has been rising since it was last increased in 1912. Originally there were 30,000 people per house member. In 1912 it was 200,000. Now it's more than 700,000. This isn't just more than the framers imagined (100,000 per) but larger than any other country in the world. 2nd place India has 400,000 per member. A larger house can make things fairer, reduce the impact of gerrymandering, result in greater diversity of membership and cheaper campaigns.  I like the "Wyoming Rule" setting the ideal house district size to that of the smallest state, which would increase the house by more than a 100 members, but we could go even larger without becoming the largest legislature in the world. Adopting the Wyoming Rule, but limiting any decennial change to 20 seats in any direction, would prevent any change so large as to be overwhelming. So it's a good idea on it's own, but how would it help Democrats? Two ways, primarily because increasing the size of the house would reduce the impact of the senator component of a state's electoral college vote. The current bonus gives greater voice to small states and rural voters, which Republicans tend to win. In 2016, Clinton won more votes than Trump but 9 fewer states and though the bonus didn't represent the difference, she would have done slightly better. For Gore in 2000, it would have made the difference. Expanding the house would also likely result in more representatives in places Democrats do well in and shift the house a little to the left as a result.
8. America Samoan citizenship - American Samoans are not American citizens, they're U.S. nationals, which means they have American passports, but they can't vote in local elections if they live in the states. The reason for this is to protect the hereditary nature of American Samoa's Senate, (which is unfair, but doesn't seem to be unpopular). There are likely only about ~50,000 American Samoans living in the US who are not citizens, but most would agree that they should be allowed to vote. A law that gave them citizenship, or that required other parts of the US to treat Nationals as citizens with respect to voting, would fix that. And since American Samoans vote for Democrats more than for Republicans, giving them citizenship would result in a real, albeit small, net gain for Democrats.
9. Territorial Representation - In addition to DC and Puerto Rico, there are four other U.S. Territories with sizable populations: American Samoa, U.S. Virgin Island, Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands. Together they have a population of ~350,000. One difficulty in gaining representation is that, unlike DC and Puerto Rico, their population is much smaller than that of the smallest state. In fact, combined they have about 2/3rds the population of Wyoming. Even if combined into one state, they're still pretty small - though larger than most states at their time of admission. But outside of statehood, the only other way to give them representation is with a constitutional amendment. There's no reason why statehood of small territories is bad, but the fact that each would get two senators may make it politically unviable. An option sometimes suggested is to create two states - the Caribbean Islands and the Pacific Islands - and place the territories into one or the other. Democrats could push for an amendment to deal with the issue of voting rights in the territories or create a pathway for some kind of statehood. If a solution could be found, it would enfranchise more than 350,000 Americans and likely add a new pool of mostly Democratic voters.
10. Non-citizen, resident voting rights - The Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act of 1996 made it illegal for non-citizen, legal residents to vote in federal elections. Throughout the first 150 years of US History, legal aliens were allowed to vote in some parts of the county. In 1928, Arkansas became the last state to outlaw it, and despite the fact that no state had allowed it in 70 years Congress made it illegal for any to do so in 1996. But a few local governments allow legal aliens to vote in local elections. These residents likely lean toward Democrats. It's unclear how Democrats or Americans feel about allowing aliens to vote, but lifting the constraint and allowing states to choose is something they could consider to allow more people a say in their government (and to create a bluer electorate).



In addition to tasks at the federal level, the states controlled by Democrats could start working - as soon as January 2019 - on laws at the state level that will pursue Democratic goals while also helping Democrats change the electorate in their favor.

1. Let more people vote- States don't have to wait for a new Voting Rights Act. They can pass their own laws, or roll back others, to let more people vote. They can let US Nationals and criminals vote. They can lower the voting age to 16 - which is when many enter the workforce. If you're old enough to pay taxes, you're old enough to vote.  In some cases - like letting not-citizen, legal aliens vote - they can only do so for state offices, but even this would be helpful. It would give those residents more say over their own lives, and help Democrats take and hold control of state legislatures and governors that set the rules for elections, design congressional districts and fill vacant senate seats.
2. Make it easier to register and vote-  The GOP has used its control of state legislatures to make voting more difficult, restrict voting hours, purge voters and require voting ID. Democrats should undo these laws and expand voting hours and locations. That there are lines in cities and near universities, but not in rural areas is a sign that voter suppression of Democratic voters is cooked into the soup.  They should institute Automatic Voter Registration and same day registration in states that haven't done so yet.