Thursday, October 25, 2018

The most important races in 2018

There's a lot on the ballot this year, but it isn't all of equal importance. If you want to know how to rank things, here's my crack at it.

1. The Senate - If Democrats can win either house in Congress would shut down Trump's legislative agenda (which is not particularly brisk now) AND allow them to control Congressional investigations and oversight. But Senate control brings with it additional control of the courts and the executive through the power to confirm/or not confirm judges and members of the president's cabinet - including Supreme Court justices. This makes Senate control more important than House control, and why it is #1. One third of the Senate seats are up for grabs and Democrats will need to pick up two to take control and one to have a chance due to a vacancy. Theoretically, Democrats could win both the MN and MS special election seats and create a tie by early December, making those two seats slightly more important than others, but MS is unlikely and a tie doesn't do much for them unless they can peel off a senator here and there.  If Democrats win the House, the Senate is partially redundant, but it's still #1 because of judges and appointees.

2. If GOP wins the Senate, the House - If the GOP wins the Senate, then the House becomes critical because it will either create or prevent single party rule for two more years. Every single House seat is up for re-election.]

3. Florida Voting Rights Restoration Initiative - This Florida ballot initiative would restore voting rights to an estimated 1.5 million people in Florida. While it wouldn't kick in until 2019, it could result in a net gain of 100,000 Democratic voters in 2020. Enough to change the state's outcome in the 2000 and 2016 presidential elections (and thus the winner in 2000), the last two Governor races, the 2004 Senate race and likely dozens of other House, state and local races.

4. Governors with a role in redistricting - There are 34 governors up for re-election in 2018. Most of them will play a role in redistricting after 2020, all of them will be able to impact the electorate in the 2020 presidential election (through purges of the voting rolls or decisions about where to place polls and when to keep them open). Some of these could create or destroy a "trifecta". A trifecta is when a single party controls the house, senate and governorship of a state. Ranking them based on their size, swing status and trifecta vulnerability and I rank them as such.

 a. Trifectas - FL, PA, NY, IL, OH, GA, MI, WI, MN, MA, TN, MD, CO, OR, OK, KS,NM, IA, RI, NV, ME, NH
 b. Others - TX,  IN, SC, AL, AR, NE

6. State legislatures with a role in redistricting. There are several state legislatures up for election, but only some play a part in redistricting. Some of these could create or destroy a "trifecta". Ranking them based on their size, swing status and trifecta vulnerability and I rank them as such.

 a. Trifectas - FL, PA, NY, IL, OH, GA, NC, MI, WI, MN-H, MA, TN, MD, CO, OR, OK, CT, IA, NV, KS, WV, NH, RI, MT
 b. Others - TX, IN, MO, SC-H, AL, KY, AR, UT,  NE-S, ME

7. Other Governors - Not all governors have a role in redistricting, but they do have oversight over elections, can appoint replacement senators, call elections to fill empty house seats and other such items. I've ranked them considering size (more seats impacted) and swing status.

 a. Trifectas - AZ, CT,  SD, AK, VT
 b. Others - CA, HI, ID, WY

8. Other state legislatures - State legislatures can pass laws that change the electorate through voter ID or motor voter laws, for example, even if they don't have anything to do with redistricting.  I've ranked them considering size and swing status. SD, AK-H, VT, WY. In addition a special election in Virginia could swing the House of Delegates into shared control.

 a. Trifectas - WA, AZ, NM-H, NH, MT, DE, SD, AK-H, VT
 b. Others - WY

9. North Carolina Ballot Initiatives - Three ballot initiatives in NC are being considered. One takes the power to appoint members of election boards and commissions away from the Governor and give it to leaders in the state House and Senate. The second weakens the amount of influence the Governor has in filling state Supreme Court vacancies and increases the legislature's. Both of these initiatives exist to weaken the power of the Democratic Governor and strengthen the Republican legislature. They would also weaken the election board by keeping it perpetually deadlocked. The third ballot measure creates a voter ID law.

10. If Dems win the Senate, the House - If Democrats win the Senate, then the House becomes redundant. But it would act as insurance in case a death or resignation puts the Senate back in play. And they would be able to carry out their own investigations and place added legislative pressure on or support for the President.

Tuesday, October 23, 2018

Annotated list of Metrorail's Record-Setting Days

Since opening in 1976, Metrorail has set had at least 44 record setting days.

Below is the most complete list of reported record-setting days I could compile - with citations and notes. But this is not a complete list as it is clear that some days were not reported and others are unknown. In the early years, due to problems with the faregates, WMATA had trouble doing daily counts, and their effort to report record setting days was spotty. From 1976 to 1981, WMATA only did daily counts occasionally, though often on what they thought were high traffic days. WMATA made no effort to count daily ridership from 1981 to 1987, instead only counted monthly ridership.  It wouldn't be until the early '90's, perhaps when the Park Service decided to stop making crowd size estimates, that WMATA made an effort to consistently report record-setting days. Furthermore, due to the aforementioned problems with the faregates, counts during the first 12 years are often estimates or have known flaws that were corrected with inconsistent methodologies.

Blue lines are for days when new stations or segments opened.
* signifies a gap and that there may be other records before this day - as reporting didn't connect this record to the prior one.



Trips Date Event Note
51,260 1 3/27/1976 Opening Day, Red Line, Farragut to RI Ave Metro free all day
--- 12/15/1976 Red Line, Gallery Place Station
--- 1/17/1977 Red Line, Dupont to Farragut
68,0231 1/20/1977 Inauguration of Jimmy Carter Metro free for 2.5 hours
~102,0002 7/2/1977 Blue Line, DCA to RFK Only an estimate was given
103,0123 7/4/1977 4th of July Open late till Midnight, free after 9pm
~105,0004 July 1977 No event Weekly average. No hardware to measure daily automatically5
~120,000*6 8/1/1977 Blue line bus reroute 210 buses changed to feed subway.
127,558*7 9/7/1977 No Event Not presented as a record.
132,1987 9/9/1977 No Event Not presented as a record.
141,319*8 10/4/1977 1st day of restricted parking near DC Metro stations
~143,000*9 1/20/1978 No Event Not presented as a record.
150,372*10 1/27/1978 Winter weather Last day of week w/daily weather-related traffic jams.
--- 2/6/1978 Red Line, RI Ave. to Silver Spring. Also start of parking meters in SS.
160,869*11 ~2/10/1978 No Event weekly average for week of 2/10/78.
163,779*11 ~2/17/1978 No Event weekly average for week of 2/17/78.
174,657*11 2/22/1978 Red Line bus rerouting 150 buses rerouted on 2/21.
182,17512 2/24/1978 No Event
190,526*13 3/17/1978 No Event Good weather and spring tourists
192,94913 3/22/1978 No Event Good weather and spring tourists
194,185*14 4/5/1978 Cherry Blossom Festival On 4/21 reported 193,000 trips "on several occasions"15
197,20114 5/3/1978 Sun Day  Solar energy benefit concert w/Jackson Browne
198,339*16 6/9/1978 Bullets NBA Championship Parade Also high ridership on May 12th due to bus driver "Wildcat" Strike
202,24416 6/13/1978 No Event Good weather and tourist season
210,25117 6/20/1978 No Event
210,94218 6/28/1978 No Event
212,52418 9/28/1978 No Event First Thursday after hours extended from 8pm to Midnight
--- 11/17/1978 Orange Line, Stadium Armory to New Carrrollton.
~220,000*19 ~1/14/1979 No Event Weekly average; following rerouting of 42 buses and restriction of 3400 DC parking spaces in December
~277,000*20 2/5/1979 Tractorcade
279,01521 6/13/1979 1979 Oil Crisis
283,16321 6/14/1979 1979 Oil Crisis
301,39822 6/15/1979 1979 Oil Crisis This number was reported twice, as was 301,75821. Alternate report has 6/19 ridership of 306,059, but seems wrong based on later reports.
--- 12/1/1979 Orange Line, Rosslynn to Ballston. Metro Subsidy for employees start in January.
317,96423 ~3/26/1980 No Event Weekly average for week of 3/26/1980.
~400,00024 ~4/29/1980 Washington for Jesus Metro free all day. Hard to get a count.
--- 11/22/1980 Blue Line, Stadium to Addison Road. Buses rerouted in January.
~400,00025 9/19/1981 Solidarity Day March Similar estimate as prior event, but also reported as a record. Metro free all morning.
--- 12/5/1981 Red Line, Dupont to Van Ness. Buses rerouted in January.
--- 4/30/1983 Yellow Line, Pentagon to Gallery Place.
~370,00026 8/27/1983 20th Anniversary MLK March on Washington Was reported later as a record, but not contemporaneous. Unlikely because (1) Estimate is lower than that for Solidarity Day.  (2) Crowd size estimate by Park Police was the same, but (a) Metro wasn't free (b) Many visitors came to town by bus and then marched in, as marching was key to the event.
~470,000*26 7/4/1984 Free Beach Boys 4th of July concert on Mall
--- 8/25/1984 Red Line, Van Ness to Grosvenor.
--- 12/15/1984 Red Line, Grosvenor to Shady Grove. Buses rerouted in January.
~470,000-500,000*27 7/4/1985 Free Beach Boys 4th of July concert on Mall Crowd on the Mall was larger than in 1984. Reports of crush loading. Likely record-setting.
--- 7/7/1986 Orange Line, Ballston to Vienna.
>500,000*28 4/22/1987 No event First day over 500,000. Likely several records set in days before and after.
515,047*29 6/25/1987 No event
564,26529 2/3/1988 Redskins Super Bowl victory parade
~565,00030 4/29/1988 Washington for Jesus '88
604,08931 1/20/1989 George H. W. Bush Inauguration
--- 9/22/1990 Red Line, Silver Spring to Wheaton.
--- 5/11/1991 Yellow Line, Gallery Place to U Street.
786,35830,32 6/8/1991 National Victory Celebration Set a weekend day record that lasted 18 years, until the Rally to Restore Sanity and/or Fear.
--- 6/15/1991 Blue Line, DCA to Van Dorn.
--- 12/25/1991 Green Line, U St to Anacostia.
811,25731 1/20/1993 First inauguration of Bill Clinton Longest lasting record, withstanding the Million Man March, Capitals 2000 playoff run, World Cup Soccer, '97 Promises Keepers gathering, and the 2003 Assemblies of God meeting.
--- 12/11/1993 Green Line, Fort Totten to Greenbelt.
--- 6/29/1997 Blue Line, Van Dorn to Franconia.
--- 7/25/1998 Red Line, Wheaton to Glenmont.
--- 9/18/1999 Green Line, U Street to Fort Totten.
--- 1/13/2001 Green Line, Anacostia to Branch Avenue.
850,63633 6/9/2004 Funeral Procession of Ronald Reagan
--- 11/20/2004 Red Line, NoMa Station.
--- 12/18/2004 Blue Line, Addison Road to Largo.
854,63834 7/11/2008 Baseball, Women of Faith conference, tourists This is really a baseload record as neither of those events were exceptional, though baseball game was 11th highest attendance of season.
866,68134 1/19/2009 King Day of Service - Obama Inauguration
~1,120,00035 1/20/2009 First inauguration of Barack Obama Estimate only. Margin of error and method unknown. Highest counted day was 1/21/2017, the Women's March, with 1,001,61335 trips (also the weekend day record).
--- 7/26/2014 Silver Line, E. Falls Church to Wiehle.


WP= The Washington Post
WS  = The Washington Star


1. Eisen, Jack. "Subway Elegant for a Night." WP. 1/22/1977.
2. Feaver, Douglas B. "Blue Line Start Rocky But Popular." WP. 7/2/1977..
3. Feaver, Douglas B. "Trains Nearly on Schedule After Fourth." WP, 7/6/1977.
4. Feaver, Douglas B. "Metro Delays Shifting Bus Routes to Subways." WP. 7/15/1977.
5. Shelton, Isabelle. "Metro Happy About Line's First Week." WS. 7/9/1977.
6. Feaver, Douglas B. "Metro is Uncertain of Total Ridership." WP. 8/3/1977.
7. Crosby, Thomas "Another Woe for Metro - Its Computers Can't Count." ES. 9/16/1977.
8. "Metro Ridership Drops for Week Of Columbus Day." WP. 10/21/1977.
9. Feaver, Douglas B. "Metro Gobbles 6,000 Persons a day". WP. 2/15/1978.
10. Feaver, Douglas B. "Tomorrow Is Red Line Day in Md". WP. 2/5/1978.
11. "Subway Ridership Jumps". WS. 2/24/1978.
12. "Metro Ridership Record Set". WS. 2/25/1978.
13. "Another Record for Metro". WS. 3/23/1978.
14. "A Record for Metro". WS. 5/7/1978.
15. Feaver, Douglas B. "Subway Hours to Expand". WP. 4/21/1978.
16. "Higher Metro Fares?" WS. 6/15/1978.
17. "Riders Up; Breakdowns, too" WS. 6/23/1978.
18. "Subway Riders Set Record Thursday" WP. 9/30/1978.
19. Feaver, Douglas B. "Metro's Mark Visible, even if tracks aren't" WP. 1/14/1979.
20. Spencer, Duncan. "Farm Protest Costs Near $1 Million, Mall Sod Ruined" WS. 2/9/1979.
21. Shelton, Isablle. "Subway, Bus use continue to increase." WS. 6/27/1979.
22. Morgan, Thomas. "Suddenly, Metro Finds Its System Is Jammed." WP. 6/20/1979
23. Feaver, Douglas B. "Metro Shows Steady Gain In Ridership". WP. 5/23/1980.
24. "Rally-Goers Boost Ridership on Metro". WP. 5/1/1980.
25. Burgess, John. "Hello, Metro: You Listening?" WP. 9/25/1981.
26. Eisen, Jack. "Glorious Record for Metro." WP, 7/7/1984.
27. "Metro Reports Worst Crush At Downtown Subway Stops". WP. 7/5/1985.
28. Henderson, Nell. "Metro Unveils Expansion Plan". WP. 5/1/1987.
29. "Redskins Fans Set Record for Metro". WP. 2/8/1988.
30. Fehr, Stephen C; Jordan, Mary. "Parade Hands Metro Two Records". WP. 6/13/1991.
31. Layton, Lyndsey. "Mass Transit Popularity Surges in U.S.". WP. 4/30/2000.
32. "Metrorail sets new Sunday record for highest ridership". Metro Press Release. 1/19/2009.
33. "Immigration Rally sets Second Highest Ridership Day in Metrorail History". Metro Press Release. 4/11/2006.
34. "Metrorail sets new record for highest ridership day of all time". Metro Press Release. 1/20/2009.
35."Metro sets new record for highest ridership day of all time". Metro Press Release. 1/21/2009.
36. Duggan, Paul. "Here’s what Metro’s Inauguration Day and Women’s March ridership numbers really mean". WP. 1/22/2017.