Tuesday, November 27, 2018

Normal is Over: What Democrats should do if they take power

I started writing this post before David Faris' book It's Time to Fight Dirty: How Democrats Can Build a Lasting Majority in American Politics came out, but I still admit there's a lot of overlap (great minds and all). The premise of the book is that Republicans have decided to abandon all norms and all courtesies in an effort to score as many wins as possible; that, for now, they're burdened only by the law and even that not entirely; and that Democrats need to play by those rules or find themselves forever a majority of the populace holding a minority of the power.

I agree with his general principal and would argue that this started in 2000 during the recount fight - that Democrats decided to fight that for the just outcome (deciding, for example, not to contest overseas ballots from service members that were postmarked late) and the GOP had decided to win at all cost. For example, on the day that Bush v. Gore was decided, the GOP-controlled Florida legislature was meeting in special session to pass a bill that would award all of Florida's electoral college votes to Bush, bypassing the outcome of the actual vote and making it unnecessary. That was the beginning of their "just win" procedural war.

I agree with much of what Faris wrote. That there are a lot of things that Democrats can do, things that happen to align well with their values, that would strengthen their hand in later elections and that would be legal, fair and within the rules. Mostly these things make it easier for people - likely Democratic voters - to vote. Greater ballot access is already a Democratic ideal? And I agree with most of his proposals. Even the idea of breaking up California into multiple states, while extremely unlikely, has merit. But most importantly, I agree that the danger of doing this is in half-heartedly doing it. Starting down this path without going all the way will allow Republicans to hold out until they can swing the pendulum back and hit back hard. If on the other hand they can go all in, then they can use their position of equity, or even power, to force Republicans to accept the codification of some norms in rules and laws. Faris says, for example, that Democrats could offer to amend the constitution so that the longest-serving justice must retire in every odd year. I'd say expand the court first, and then push the amendment with a promise to let the court revert back to 9 judges once passed.

Below is a list of procedural changes Democrats should pursue if they find themselves in complete control in 2020, and the order in which to get rid of them.

1. Get rid of the Filibuster - The filibuster protects GOP priorities more than it does Democratic ones. The GOP doesn't want to pass that many laws - as witnessed by the last two years - and most of the things the GOP does want to do, it can do with reconciliation. The filibuster was never meant to be part of the process, will only stand in the way of Democratic objectives (as it did in 2010) and must go in order for them to do what they need to do.
2. Expand the Supreme Court - Yes, this is packing the court and it didn't work for FDR, but that was a different time. Adding two judges makes up for the unprecedented blocking of Merrick Garland. This would have been more politically justifiable if Reid or Biden had warned Republicans in 2016 that blocking Obama's picks would leave them no choice, but we are where we are. This needs to happen early because Democrats need a court that won't overturn everything, they earned one, and this is how they get it back. Note that if they do this, and the current SCOTUS overturns that law, then we have already lost our democracy.
2. Statehood for DC and Puerto Rico - The Democratic party has already said it supports statehood for these two. DC's residents had a vote supporting statehood. Puerto Rico's delegate introduced a law asking for statehood - which got bipartisan support. Not only is right to give millions of disenfranchised Americans a say in the federal government, but it will likely add 3 to 4 Democratic Senators, a net gain of Democratic house members, and a few extra votes in the electoral college
4. Pass a New Voting Rights Act - The Supreme Court gutted the Voting Rights Act in 2013 getting rid of the "preclearance" requirement for areas with histories of racial discrimination. But it only did so because the formula for preclearance was old. If Congress passed a law with a new formula, preclearance would be back. Alternatively, they could just require every jurisdiction to be subject to preclearance. In addition, they could invalidate voter ID laws, make registration automatic, end felon disenfranchisement but for the most serious of crimes (many felons just haven't paid court fees), National Election Day Holiday, mandatory voting access (how far and how long), bring every state under review by the Justice Department
5. Immigration reform with a path to citizenship- As Farris wrote "Republicans have always feared that immigration would change the character of American society. Democrats should reward them with their very worst nightmare.”  Democrats support immigration reform. They support a path to citizenship. In fact so do most Americans. Giving people who have lived here for years without causing any trouble a way to become full citizens is the right thing to do. It just so happens it would create millions of new voters, the majority of which would then vote for Democrats.
6. Prison Sentence Reform - Another large group of Americans who can't vote are in prison. This is not true everywhere as the incarcerated can vote in both Maine and Vermont, but it is true in most places. There are 14 states and DC that allow people on parole or probation to vote and 21 that restore voting rights once incarceration is over. So getting people out of prison and off parole will create more voters. And guess what, there is wide, bipartisan support for reforming prison sentencing by creating shorter sentences and giving judges greater discretion. In fact Democrats and Republicans might be able to pass a law or laws on this before 2021. A majority of the people serving long sentences for non-violent crimes will vote for Democrats, just as the majority of those who can't vote because of past crimes would vote for Democrats.
7. Expand the House - The number of constituents per house member has been rising since it was last increased in 1912. Originally there were 30,000 people per house member. In 1912 it was 200,000. Now it's more than 700,000. This isn't just more than the framers imagined (100,000 per) but larger than any other country in the world. 2nd place India has 400,000 per member. A larger house can make things fairer, reduce the impact of gerrymandering, result in greater diversity of membership and cheaper campaigns.  I like the "Wyoming Rule" setting the ideal house district size to that of the smallest state, which would increase the house by more than a 100 members, but we could go even larger without becoming the largest legislature in the world. Adopting the Wyoming Rule, but limiting any decennial change to 20 seats in any direction, would prevent any change so large as to be overwhelming. So it's a good idea on it's own, but how would it help Democrats? Two ways, primarily because increasing the size of the house would reduce the impact of the senator component of a state's electoral college vote. The current bonus gives greater voice to small states and rural voters, which Republicans tend to win. In 2016, Clinton won more votes than Trump but 9 fewer states and though the bonus didn't represent the difference, she would have done slightly better. For Gore in 2000, it would have made the difference. Expanding the house would also likely result in more representatives in places Democrats do well in and shift the house a little to the left as a result.
8. America Samoan citizenship - American Samoans are not American citizens, they're U.S. nationals, which means they have American passports, but they can't vote in local elections if they live in the states. The reason for this is to protect the hereditary nature of American Samoa's Senate, (which is unfair, but doesn't seem to be unpopular). There are likely only about ~50,000 American Samoans living in the US who are not citizens, but most would agree that they should be allowed to vote. A law that gave them citizenship, or that required other parts of the US to treat Nationals as citizens with respect to voting, would fix that. And since American Samoans vote for Democrats more than for Republicans, giving them citizenship would result in a real, albeit small, net gain for Democrats.
9. Territorial Representation - In addition to DC and Puerto Rico, there are four other U.S. Territories with sizable populations: American Samoa, U.S. Virgin Island, Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands. Together they have a population of ~350,000. One difficulty in gaining representation is that, unlike DC and Puerto Rico, their population is much smaller than that of the smallest state. In fact, combined they have about 2/3rds the population of Wyoming. Even if combined into one state, they're still pretty small - though larger than most states at their time of admission. But outside of statehood, the only other way to give them representation is with a constitutional amendment. There's no reason why statehood of small territories is bad, but the fact that each would get two senators may make it politically unviable. An option sometimes suggested is to create two states - the Caribbean Islands and the Pacific Islands - and place the territories into one or the other. Democrats could push for an amendment to deal with the issue of voting rights in the territories or create a pathway for some kind of statehood. If a solution could be found, it would enfranchise more than 350,000 Americans and likely add a new pool of mostly Democratic voters.
10. Non-citizen, resident voting rights - The Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act of 1996 made it illegal for non-citizen, legal residents to vote in federal elections. Throughout the first 150 years of US History, legal aliens were allowed to vote in some parts of the county. In 1928, Arkansas became the last state to outlaw it, and despite the fact that no state had allowed it in 70 years Congress made it illegal for any to do so in 1996. But a few local governments allow legal aliens to vote in local elections. These residents likely lean toward Democrats. It's unclear how Democrats or Americans feel about allowing aliens to vote, but lifting the constraint and allowing states to choose is something they could consider to allow more people a say in their government (and to create a bluer electorate).



In addition to tasks at the federal level, the states controlled by Democrats could start working - as soon as January 2019 - on laws at the state level that will pursue Democratic goals while also helping Democrats change the electorate in their favor.

1. Let more people vote- States don't have to wait for a new Voting Rights Act. They can pass their own laws, or roll back others, to let more people vote. They can let US Nationals and criminals vote. They can lower the voting age to 16 - which is when many enter the workforce. If you're old enough to pay taxes, you're old enough to vote.  In some cases - like letting not-citizen, legal aliens vote - they can only do so for state offices, but even this would be helpful. It would give those residents more say over their own lives, and help Democrats take and hold control of state legislatures and governors that set the rules for elections, design congressional districts and fill vacant senate seats.
2. Make it easier to register and vote-  The GOP has used its control of state legislatures to make voting more difficult, restrict voting hours, purge voters and require voting ID. Democrats should undo these laws and expand voting hours and locations. That there are lines in cities and near universities, but not in rural areas is a sign that voter suppression of Democratic voters is cooked into the soup.  They should institute Automatic Voter Registration and same day registration in states that haven't done so yet. 

Thursday, October 25, 2018

The most important races in 2018

There's a lot on the ballot this year, but it isn't all of equal importance. If you want to know how to rank things, here's my crack at it.

1. The Senate - If Democrats can win either house in Congress would shut down Trump's legislative agenda (which is not particularly brisk now) AND allow them to control Congressional investigations and oversight. But Senate control brings with it additional control of the courts and the executive through the power to confirm/or not confirm judges and members of the president's cabinet - including Supreme Court justices. This makes Senate control more important than House control, and why it is #1. One third of the Senate seats are up for grabs and Democrats will need to pick up two to take control and one to have a chance due to a vacancy. Theoretically, Democrats could win both the MN and MS special election seats and create a tie by early December, making those two seats slightly more important than others, but MS is unlikely and a tie doesn't do much for them unless they can peel off a senator here and there.  If Democrats win the House, the Senate is partially redundant, but it's still #1 because of judges and appointees.

2. If GOP wins the Senate, the House - If the GOP wins the Senate, then the House becomes critical because it will either create or prevent single party rule for two more years. Every single House seat is up for re-election.]

3. Florida Voting Rights Restoration Initiative - This Florida ballot initiative would restore voting rights to an estimated 1.5 million people in Florida. While it wouldn't kick in until 2019, it could result in a net gain of 100,000 Democratic voters in 2020. Enough to change the state's outcome in the 2000 and 2016 presidential elections (and thus the winner in 2000), the last two Governor races, the 2004 Senate race and likely dozens of other House, state and local races.

4. Governors with a role in redistricting - There are 34 governors up for re-election in 2018. Most of them will play a role in redistricting after 2020, all of them will be able to impact the electorate in the 2020 presidential election (through purges of the voting rolls or decisions about where to place polls and when to keep them open). Some of these could create or destroy a "trifecta". A trifecta is when a single party controls the house, senate and governorship of a state. Ranking them based on their size, swing status and trifecta vulnerability and I rank them as such.

 a. Trifectas - FL, PA, NY, IL, OH, GA, MI, WI, MN, MA, TN, MD, CO, OR, OK, KS,NM, IA, RI, NV, ME, NH
 b. Others - TX,  IN, SC, AL, AR, NE

6. State legislatures with a role in redistricting. There are several state legislatures up for election, but only some play a part in redistricting. Some of these could create or destroy a "trifecta". Ranking them based on their size, swing status and trifecta vulnerability and I rank them as such.

 a. Trifectas - FL, PA, NY, IL, OH, GA, NC, MI, WI, MN-H, MA, TN, MD, CO, OR, OK, CT, IA, NV, KS, WV, NH, RI, MT
 b. Others - TX, IN, MO, SC-H, AL, KY, AR, UT,  NE-S, ME

7. Other Governors - Not all governors have a role in redistricting, but they do have oversight over elections, can appoint replacement senators, call elections to fill empty house seats and other such items. I've ranked them considering size (more seats impacted) and swing status.

 a. Trifectas - AZ, CT,  SD, AK, VT
 b. Others - CA, HI, ID, WY

8. Other state legislatures - State legislatures can pass laws that change the electorate through voter ID or motor voter laws, for example, even if they don't have anything to do with redistricting.  I've ranked them considering size and swing status. SD, AK-H, VT, WY. In addition a special election in Virginia could swing the House of Delegates into shared control.

 a. Trifectas - WA, AZ, NM-H, NH, MT, DE, SD, AK-H, VT
 b. Others - WY

9. North Carolina Ballot Initiatives - Three ballot initiatives in NC are being considered. One takes the power to appoint members of election boards and commissions away from the Governor and give it to leaders in the state House and Senate. The second weakens the amount of influence the Governor has in filling state Supreme Court vacancies and increases the legislature's. Both of these initiatives exist to weaken the power of the Democratic Governor and strengthen the Republican legislature. They would also weaken the election board by keeping it perpetually deadlocked. The third ballot measure creates a voter ID law.

10. If Dems win the Senate, the House - If Democrats win the Senate, then the House becomes redundant. But it would act as insurance in case a death or resignation puts the Senate back in play. And they would be able to carry out their own investigations and place added legislative pressure on or support for the President.

Tuesday, October 23, 2018

Annotated list of Metrorail's Record-Setting Days

Since opening in 1976, Metrorail has set had at least 44 record setting days.

Below is the most complete list of reported record-setting days I could compile - with citations and notes. But this is not a complete list as it is clear that some days were not reported and others are unknown. In the early years, due to problems with the faregates, WMATA had trouble doing daily counts, and their effort to report record setting days was spotty. From 1976 to 1981, WMATA only did daily counts occasionally, though often on what they thought were high traffic days. WMATA made no effort to count daily ridership from 1981 to 1987, instead only counted monthly ridership.  It wouldn't be until the early '90's, perhaps when the Park Service decided to stop making crowd size estimates, that WMATA made an effort to consistently report record-setting days. Furthermore, due to the aforementioned problems with the faregates, counts during the first 12 years are often estimates or have known flaws that were corrected with inconsistent methodologies.

Blue lines are for days when new stations or segments opened.
* signifies a gap and that there may be other records before this day - as reporting didn't connect this record to the prior one.



Trips Date Event Note
51,260 1 3/27/1976 Opening Day, Red Line, Farragut to RI Ave Metro free all day
--- 12/15/1976 Red Line, Gallery Place Station
--- 1/17/1977 Red Line, Dupont to Farragut
68,0231 1/20/1977 Inauguration of Jimmy Carter Metro free for 2.5 hours
~102,0002 7/2/1977 Blue Line, DCA to RFK Only an estimate was given
103,0123 7/4/1977 4th of July Open late till Midnight, free after 9pm
~105,0004 July 1977 No event Weekly average. No hardware to measure daily automatically5
~120,000*6 8/1/1977 Blue line bus reroute 210 buses changed to feed subway.
127,558*7 9/7/1977 No Event Not presented as a record.
132,1987 9/9/1977 No Event Not presented as a record.
141,319*8 10/4/1977 1st day of restricted parking near DC Metro stations
~143,000*9 1/20/1978 No Event Not presented as a record.
150,372*10 1/27/1978 Winter weather Last day of week w/daily weather-related traffic jams.
--- 2/6/1978 Red Line, RI Ave. to Silver Spring. Also start of parking meters in SS.
160,869*11 ~2/10/1978 No Event weekly average for week of 2/10/78.
163,779*11 ~2/17/1978 No Event weekly average for week of 2/17/78.
174,657*11 2/22/1978 Red Line bus rerouting 150 buses rerouted on 2/21.
182,17512 2/24/1978 No Event
190,526*13 3/17/1978 No Event Good weather and spring tourists
192,94913 3/22/1978 No Event Good weather and spring tourists
194,185*14 4/5/1978 Cherry Blossom Festival On 4/21 reported 193,000 trips "on several occasions"15
197,20114 5/3/1978 Sun Day  Solar energy benefit concert w/Jackson Browne
198,339*16 6/9/1978 Bullets NBA Championship Parade Also high ridership on May 12th due to bus driver "Wildcat" Strike
202,24416 6/13/1978 No Event Good weather and tourist season
210,25117 6/20/1978 No Event
210,94218 6/28/1978 No Event
212,52418 9/28/1978 No Event First Thursday after hours extended from 8pm to Midnight
--- 11/17/1978 Orange Line, Stadium Armory to New Carrrollton.
~220,000*19 ~1/14/1979 No Event Weekly average; following rerouting of 42 buses and restriction of 3400 DC parking spaces in December
~277,000*20 2/5/1979 Tractorcade
279,01521 6/13/1979 1979 Oil Crisis
283,16321 6/14/1979 1979 Oil Crisis
301,39822 6/15/1979 1979 Oil Crisis This number was reported twice, as was 301,75821. Alternate report has 6/19 ridership of 306,059, but seems wrong based on later reports.
--- 12/1/1979 Orange Line, Rosslynn to Ballston. Metro Subsidy for employees start in January.
317,96423 ~3/26/1980 No Event Weekly average for week of 3/26/1980.
~400,00024 ~4/29/1980 Washington for Jesus Metro free all day. Hard to get a count.
--- 11/22/1980 Blue Line, Stadium to Addison Road. Buses rerouted in January.
~400,00025 9/19/1981 Solidarity Day March Similar estimate as prior event, but also reported as a record. Metro free all morning.
--- 12/5/1981 Red Line, Dupont to Van Ness. Buses rerouted in January.
--- 4/30/1983 Yellow Line, Pentagon to Gallery Place.
~370,00026 8/27/1983 20th Anniversary MLK March on Washington Was reported later as a record, but not contemporaneous. Unlikely because (1) Estimate is lower than that for Solidarity Day.  (2) Crowd size estimate by Park Police was the same, but (a) Metro wasn't free (b) Many visitors came to town by bus and then marched in, as marching was key to the event.
~470,000*26 7/4/1984 Free Beach Boys 4th of July concert on Mall
--- 8/25/1984 Red Line, Van Ness to Grosvenor.
--- 12/15/1984 Red Line, Grosvenor to Shady Grove. Buses rerouted in January.
~470,000-500,000*27 7/4/1985 Free Beach Boys 4th of July concert on Mall Crowd on the Mall was larger than in 1984. Reports of crush loading. Likely record-setting.
--- 7/7/1986 Orange Line, Ballston to Vienna.
>500,000*28 4/22/1987 No event First day over 500,000. Likely several records set in days before and after.
515,047*29 6/25/1987 No event
564,26529 2/3/1988 Redskins Super Bowl victory parade
~565,00030 4/29/1988 Washington for Jesus '88
604,08931 1/20/1989 George H. W. Bush Inauguration
--- 9/22/1990 Red Line, Silver Spring to Wheaton.
--- 5/11/1991 Yellow Line, Gallery Place to U Street.
786,35830,32 6/8/1991 National Victory Celebration Set a weekend day record that lasted 18 years, until the Rally to Restore Sanity and/or Fear.
--- 6/15/1991 Blue Line, DCA to Van Dorn.
--- 12/25/1991 Green Line, U St to Anacostia.
811,25731 1/20/1993 First inauguration of Bill Clinton Longest lasting record, withstanding the Million Man March, Capitals 2000 playoff run, World Cup Soccer, '97 Promises Keepers gathering, and the 2003 Assemblies of God meeting.
--- 12/11/1993 Green Line, Fort Totten to Greenbelt.
--- 6/29/1997 Blue Line, Van Dorn to Franconia.
--- 7/25/1998 Red Line, Wheaton to Glenmont.
--- 9/18/1999 Green Line, U Street to Fort Totten.
--- 1/13/2001 Green Line, Anacostia to Branch Avenue.
850,63633 6/9/2004 Funeral Procession of Ronald Reagan
--- 11/20/2004 Red Line, NoMa Station.
--- 12/18/2004 Blue Line, Addison Road to Largo.
854,63834 7/11/2008 Baseball, Women of Faith conference, tourists This is really a baseload record as neither of those events were exceptional, though baseball game was 11th highest attendance of season.
866,68134 1/19/2009 King Day of Service - Obama Inauguration
~1,120,00035 1/20/2009 First inauguration of Barack Obama Estimate only. Margin of error and method unknown. Highest counted day was 1/21/2017, the Women's March, with 1,001,61335 trips (also the weekend day record).
--- 7/26/2014 Silver Line, E. Falls Church to Wiehle.


WP= The Washington Post
WS  = The Washington Star


1. Eisen, Jack. "Subway Elegant for a Night." WP. 1/22/1977.
2. Feaver, Douglas B. "Blue Line Start Rocky But Popular." WP. 7/2/1977..
3. Feaver, Douglas B. "Trains Nearly on Schedule After Fourth." WP, 7/6/1977.
4. Feaver, Douglas B. "Metro Delays Shifting Bus Routes to Subways." WP. 7/15/1977.
5. Shelton, Isabelle. "Metro Happy About Line's First Week." WS. 7/9/1977.
6. Feaver, Douglas B. "Metro is Uncertain of Total Ridership." WP. 8/3/1977.
7. Crosby, Thomas "Another Woe for Metro - Its Computers Can't Count." ES. 9/16/1977.
8. "Metro Ridership Drops for Week Of Columbus Day." WP. 10/21/1977.
9. Feaver, Douglas B. "Metro Gobbles 6,000 Persons a day". WP. 2/15/1978.
10. Feaver, Douglas B. "Tomorrow Is Red Line Day in Md". WP. 2/5/1978.
11. "Subway Ridership Jumps". WS. 2/24/1978.
12. "Metro Ridership Record Set". WS. 2/25/1978.
13. "Another Record for Metro". WS. 3/23/1978.
14. "A Record for Metro". WS. 5/7/1978.
15. Feaver, Douglas B. "Subway Hours to Expand". WP. 4/21/1978.
16. "Higher Metro Fares?" WS. 6/15/1978.
17. "Riders Up; Breakdowns, too" WS. 6/23/1978.
18. "Subway Riders Set Record Thursday" WP. 9/30/1978.
19. Feaver, Douglas B. "Metro's Mark Visible, even if tracks aren't" WP. 1/14/1979.
20. Spencer, Duncan. "Farm Protest Costs Near $1 Million, Mall Sod Ruined" WS. 2/9/1979.
21. Shelton, Isablle. "Subway, Bus use continue to increase." WS. 6/27/1979.
22. Morgan, Thomas. "Suddenly, Metro Finds Its System Is Jammed." WP. 6/20/1979
23. Feaver, Douglas B. "Metro Shows Steady Gain In Ridership". WP. 5/23/1980.
24. "Rally-Goers Boost Ridership on Metro". WP. 5/1/1980.
25. Burgess, John. "Hello, Metro: You Listening?" WP. 9/25/1981.
26. Eisen, Jack. "Glorious Record for Metro." WP, 7/7/1984.
27. "Metro Reports Worst Crush At Downtown Subway Stops". WP. 7/5/1985.
28. Henderson, Nell. "Metro Unveils Expansion Plan". WP. 5/1/1987.
29. "Redskins Fans Set Record for Metro". WP. 2/8/1988.
30. Fehr, Stephen C; Jordan, Mary. "Parade Hands Metro Two Records". WP. 6/13/1991.
31. Layton, Lyndsey. "Mass Transit Popularity Surges in U.S.". WP. 4/30/2000.
32. "Metrorail sets new Sunday record for highest ridership". Metro Press Release. 1/19/2009.
33. "Immigration Rally sets Second Highest Ridership Day in Metrorail History". Metro Press Release. 4/11/2006.
34. "Metrorail sets new record for highest ridership day of all time". Metro Press Release. 1/20/2009.
35."Metro sets new record for highest ridership day of all time". Metro Press Release. 1/21/2009.
36. Duggan, Paul. "Here’s what Metro’s Inauguration Day and Women’s March ridership numbers really mean". WP. 1/22/2017.

Tuesday, March 6, 2018

Senate retirement and resignation preferences, March 2018


Update: Updated on March 6, 2018 because of move into new year (Cochran is retiring, which is the 25th best retirement for Dems, because it gives them an extra shot at that seat, but they may have been better off without it. Winning it will be tough and Cochran was likely to miss many votes over the next 9 months, meaning Dems would only have to flip one Republican).

D Governor replaces R Senator, election in 2018

1. Gardner (R-CO)
2. Toomey (R-PA)
3. Daines (R-MT)

D Governor replaces R Senator, special in 2018

4. Kennedy (R-LA)
5. Cassidy (R-LA)

D Governor replaces R Senator with another R (by law), special in 2018

6. Tillis (R-NC)
7. Burr (R-NC)

No replacement of R Senator, special in 2018

8. Hoeven (R-ND)
9. Lankford (R-OK)
10. Inhofe (R-OK)

I Governor replaces R Senator, special in 2018

11. Sullivan (R-AK)
12. Murkowski (R-AK)

R Governor replaces R Senator, special in 2018 

13. Collins (R-ME)
14. Johnson (R-WI)
15. Rubio (R-FL)
16. McCain (R-AZ)
17. Isakson (R-GA)
18. Perdue (R-GA)
19. Portman (R-OH)
20. Cornyn (R-TX)
21, Ernst (R-IA)
22. Grassley (R-IA)
23. Scott (R-SC)
24. Graham (R-SC)
25. Cochran (R-MS)
26. Wicker (R-MS)
27. Lee (R-UT)
28. Young (R-IN)
29. Moran (R-KS)
30. Roberts (R-KS)
31. Sasse (R-NE)
32. Alexander (R-TN)
33. Cotton (R-AR)
34. Boozeman (R-AR)
35. Shelby (R-AL)
36. Thune (R-SD)
37. Rounds (R-SD)
38. Paul (R-KY)
39. McConnell (R-KY)
40. Crapo (R-ID)
41. Risch (R-ID)
42. Capito (R-WV)
43. Enzi (R-WY)

R Governor replaces R Senator, term ends in 2018 

44. Heller (R-NV)
45. Flake (R-AZ)
46. Cruz (R-TX)
47. Hatch (R-UT)
48. Blunt (R-MO)
49. Fischer (R-NE)
50. Corker (R-TN)
51. Barasso (R-WY)

D Governor replaces D Senator, term ends in 2018 

52. Hirono (D-HI)*
53. Feinstein (D-CA)
54. Gillibrand (D-NY)
55. Menendez (D-NJ)
56. Booker (D-NJ)
57. Carper (D-DE)
58. Kaine (D-VA)
59. Klobucher (D-MN)
60. Smith (D-MN)
61. Casey (D-PA)
62. Tester (D-MT)

D Governor replaces D Senator, special in 2018

63. Schatz (D-HI)*
64. Harris (D-CA)
65. Markey (D-MA)
66. Warren (D-MA)
67. Schumer (D-NY)
68. Murray (D-WA)
69. Cantwell (D-WA)
70. Murphy (D-CT),
71. Coons (D-DE)
72. Warner (D-VA)
73. Bennet (D-CO)

No replacement of D Senator, special in 2018

74. Blumenthal (D-CT)
75. Reed (D-RI)
76. Whitehouse (D-RI)
77. Wyden (D-OR)
78. Merkley (D-OR)
79. Heitkamp (D-ND)

R Governor replaces D Senator, special in 2018

80. Leahy (D-VT)
81. Sanders (I-VT)
82. Baldwin (D-WI)

R Governor replaces D Senator

83. Cardin (D-MD)
84. Van Hollen (D-MD)
85. Durbin (D-IL)
86. Duckworth (D-IL)
87. Udall (D-NM)
88. Heinrich (D-NM)
89. King (I-ME)
90. Masto (D-NV)
91. Shaheen (D-NH)
92. Hassan (D-NH)
93. Stabenow (D-MI)
94. Peters (D-MI)
95. Nelson (D-FL)
96. Brown (D-OH)
97. McCaskeill (D-MO)
98. Donnelly (D-IN)
99. Jones (D-AL)
100. Manchin (D-WV)

+ Governor is an Independent, has been a Republican and ran with the Democratic nominee
*Party leaders pick the possible replacements and governor selects from them
++if vacancy occurs before March 2018, otherwise seat empty till Nov 2018