Monday, March 7, 2022

The Space travelers and Time travelers in the MCU

My kids have recently been watching the MCU movies and just caught up. One of them noted that a lot of the humans have been to alien planets but they don't make as big a deal of it as they should. Especially compared to how many times our neighbor talks about their "summer in Paris" (We get it. It was magical). We started to list them all and realized that it's not that many characters - in fact only 10 earthlings from the MCU movies have been to alien worlds - though many more from the show Agents of Shield have been. Here they are listed in chronological order. Spoilers below.

Alveus, by then transformed into the inhuman Hive, was banished to the planet Maveth over 5000 years ago, making him the first human to set foot on another planet in the MCU. Over the following millennia, an unknown number of humans were transported there as a sacrifice to Hive and for him to use as a host. Two such victims were Lord Manzini in 1839 and Nathaniel Malick in 1970.

Peter Quill/Star-Lord (who's only half human) was abducted in 1988 and then spent his life, except for a brief time on Earth during Endgame, in space and on alien worlds.

Capt. Carol Danvers/Captain Marvel - only 1 year later, Danvers becomes the 2nd Earthling (from the movies) to visit an alien planet when she is kidnapped by the Kree and taken to Hala where she lives until 1995 when the events of the Captain Marvel movie takes place. Afterward we're led to believe that she too visits many alien worlds. 

Will Daniels, S. Austin, Brubaker and Taylor - In 2001, Astronaut Will Daniels and three scientists were sent to Maveth as part of a NASA mission (and secretly as another sacrifice to Hive). 

Dr. Jane Foster -  Jane Foster traveled to Asgard and then Svartalfheim in 2013. In 2024, as the Mighty Thor, she traveled to The Moon of Shame in the Shadow Realm, Omnipotence City,  and the Gates of Eternity.


Dr. Bruce Banner/The Hulk* - Following the events of Age of Ultron, Banner commandeers a twinjet and flies it into space. Sometime by 2017 he passed through a wormhole that took him to the planet of Sakaar. After reuniting with Thor there in 2017, the two travel to Asgard (making him the 2nd, and last, human to visit). As Asgard is destroyed, Hulk escaped with the Agardians aboard their ship which was later boarded by Thanos. After fighting Thanos and being nearly killed he was transported back to Earth. 


Jemma Simmons, Leo Fitz, Grant Ward, Phil Coulson and unnamed Hydra troops - In 2015, Simmons was also transported to Maveth via the Monolith. Shortly thereafter Fitz traveled to the planet via the Monolith to rescue her. Later that same year, a Hydra team led by Grant Ward and guided by Fitz (who returned to Maveth) went through the portal to Maveth and Phil Coulson followed. Only Coulson, Fitz and Hive (using Ward's body) escaped.

Peter Parker/Spiderman, Tony Stark/Ironman* and Dr. Strange - After Ebony Maw comes to Earth in 2018 to retrieve the Time Stone, he captures Dr. Strange and takes him aboard his Q-ship. Parker and Stark try to rescue him and wind up onboard as well. The ship then takes them to Titan where they battle Thanos and lose.

Steve Rogers/Captain America, Natasha Romanoff/Black Widow, Bruce Banner/Hulk and James Rhodes/War Machine and Carol Danvers/Captain Marvel - In 2018 this group, along with Rocket Raccoon and Thor, travel to "the Garden" (aka Planet 0259-S) to find the Infinity Stones, but only discover that Thanos has destroyed them. Thor kills Thanos and the group leaves, seemingly defeated. 

Clint Barton/Hawkeye* and Natasha Romanoff/Black Widow* - During the 2023 "Time Heist", Barton and Romanoff travel first to Morag, to drop off another team, and then continue to Vormir to retrieve the Soul Stone. 

James Rhodes/War Machine* - During the 2023 "Time Heist", Rhodes travels to Morag with Barton, Romanoff and Nebula to retrieve the Power Stone.

Steve Rogers/Captain America* - After the Battle of Earth and the defeat of Thanos, Rogers travels to Morag, Vormir, and Asgard to return the Power, Soul and Reality stones. 


Nick Fury - Following the blip, Fury joins S.A.B.E.R and then moves onto the S.A.B.E.R space station in low Earth orbit where he stays on and off for years. 

Kamala Khan and Monica Rambeau - After the Blip, when Supremor Dar-Benn disrupts the jump points, Rambeau switches places with Danvers and winds up on MB-418. Later all three of them travel to Tarnax IV and Aladna.

But wait, there's more. Characters listed with an asterisk by their name are also time travelers, meaning there are six earthlings who have both travelled to another planet and travelled through time, of which four are still alive at the end of Endgame.

Some superlatives - Danvers and Quill obviously have been to the most planets of any earthlings and spent the most time in space (not counting the centuries spent on Maveth by Alveus), but we don't know which has been to more places. Quill had spent more time in space up until the snap, but it's likely Danvers beat him out by the time of the blip.  

Of the time traveling earthlings, Rogers went to the most planets - four, and Banner spent the most time in space/another planet (up to 3 years). Rogers also did the most time traveling. It seems that Barton spent the least amount of time on another planet.

In the movies Romanoff is the first (and only so far) human to die on another planet. But it was one of Hive's unnamed victims that holds that honor if we count that show.

So yeah, this post is stupid, but hopefully fun. 

Thursday, May 20, 2021

How tenuous is the Democratic advantage in the Senate

16 states currently have a partisan split between the Governor and the Senators. Of these 16 states, 9 allow the Governor to appoint a replacement from a different party until the expiry of the original term, or the next statewide election: Georgia, Kansas, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, Maine, New Hampshire, Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia. A further three also allow gubernatorial appointments from a different party, but with a proximate special election to be held: Louisiana, Massachusetts, and Vermont.

7 of those states have Republican governors and Democratic senators and 2 have Democratic governors and Republican senators, meaning there are many more opportunities for Republicans to flip the Senate with an opportune death than there are for Democrats. And more so since the Democrats are older. The Democratic Senators by state and age are:
And the Republican are
Using the Social Security actuarial life table and the some high school math, it turns out that, when Congress started, there was a 49.44% chance that one of these critical Democratic Senators would die before 2023. There's only a 12.55% chance that one of the Republicans will. [Note: US Senators are likely of better health, and definitely have access to better care, than the average American their age does and so these numbers are likely inflated.] That means there was 43.23% chance that at least one of the Democrats would die and none of the Republicans would and the Senate would flip (This ignores the rare situations in which two Democrats die and only one of these Republicans, or three and two or five and four, etc...).

With each day that probability goes down. At the start of 2022, the probabilities will be 29.56%, 6.72% and 27.57% and then continue to drop. [Update: While true at the beginning of 2022, it quickly got worse when Republican Glenn Youngkin flipped the Virginia Governor's mansion creating two more at risk Democratic seats. Tim Kaine is 64 and Mark Warner is 67.]

Nonetheless, every day the Democrats don't pass the legislation they want to pass they're rolling the dice and the dice are not in their favor. RBG gambled too when she didn't resign while Democrats controlled the Senate and liberals lost when she did. 

Tuesday, February 2, 2021

The Republican Party's Senate Advantage

The US Senate is perhaps the least democratic body in the world. And the ways in which it's undemocratic - with each state getting 2 senators regardless of population and winner take all elections - happens to create an advantage for Republicans. This advantage has been reported in several different ways such as how many people the Senators represent

Today, according to Drutman’s figures, the 47 Democratic senators represent almost 169 million people, while the 53 Republican senators represent about 158 million.

Or how many people voted for each 

In the new Senate, the 46 Democrats will have received 20 million more votes than the 54 Republicans.

Neither of these seem like the right way to demonstrate the advantage. The problem with the first method stems from the word "represent." Someone can represent you - legally - without representing you philosophically. If one party won all 100 seats by just 1 vote each, they would legally represent everyone, but not policy-wise.

The second method ignores all the people who voted against someone. 

Instead, the right way is compare everyone who voted for Democrats in the Senate's 100 races to everyone who voted for Republicans in those same races. If we do that it turns out that Republicans haven't had the advantage in votes since January 2, 2001 even though they've controlled the Senate for nearly 13 of the 20 years since then.


On the plot above, the purple line shows how many more (or fewer) people voted for Democrats in the 100 Senate elections that fill the seats at any given time The blue streaks show the periods of Democratic control of the Senate. You can see that Democrats have had a vote advantage of millions, but it has not resulted in control of the Senate. Over the past 4 years, their vote advantage was more than 10 million votes and yet they didn't control the Senate.

A few caveats about the data. 
  • When a seat is filled by an appointee, it doesn't count in the total (both Democrats and Republicans get zero votes). 
  • Senators are counted with the party they caucus with, unless they switch parties mid-term. So votes for Bernie Sanders count as votes for Democrats, but votes for Jim Jeffords following his 2001 switch still counted for Republicans. 
  • In jungle primaries or California's top-2 system, the votes from the runoff are used, unless only one party advances and then the votes from the primary are used with each parties candidates votes added together. 





https://www.brookings.edu/experts/molly-e-reynolds/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/senate-states-republican-control/2020/11/18/571573e0-2915-11eb-92b7-6ef17b3fe3b4_story.html

Friday, December 18, 2020

Below is a list of the busiest days of each year for Washington's Metrorail system - as best as can be determined. The one highlighted in purple is an imperfect estimate from an online tool.

Year  Event                                                       Day                Ridership

2020 Hockey (18,573)                                    Wen Mar 4 - 675,000 (suspected)

2019 CBF, Wiz (16,616), Baseball(23,050)    Wen, Apr 3 - 756,500

2018 Stanley Cup Celebration         Tue, Jun 12 - 840,145

2017 Women's March on Washington         Sat, Jan 21 - 1,001,613

2016 Cherry Blossom Festival (CBF)             Thu, Mar 24 - 767,000

2015 Baseball (41,291)                 Wen, July 22 - 782,707 

2014 CBF, Baseball (20,869), Miley Cyrus Thu, Apr 10 - 818,076 

2013 CBF, BB(24896), Wizs (20308), Immigration rally         Wen, Apr 10 - 871,164

2012 CBF, Hockey (18,506)         Fri, March 23 - 845,669

2011 Baseball (27,130), US Open Golf         Wen, June 15 - 851,742

2010 CBF, Wizards (18,002)                         Fri, Apr 2  - 891,240

2009 Obama Inauguration Day         Tue, Jan 20 - 1,120,000(est)

2008 Baseball (33,653), WofF conference  Fri, Jul 11 - 854,638

2007 CBF/Baseball (20,894)                         Tue, Apr 3 - 831,508

2006 Immigrant Rights Rally         Mon, Apr 10 - 821,283

2005 Baseball (36,840)                 Thu, July 21 - 769,553

2004 Reagan State Funeral         Wen, June 9 - 850,636

2003 AofGod & Soccer (Barcelona v. Milan) Wen, July 30 - 745,627 

2002 National Rally in Solidarity With Israel Mon, April 15 - 718,747

2001 No Event                 Thu, July 12 - 699,990 

2000 Million Family March         Mon, Oct 16 - 688,467 (*)

1999 CBF                                 Thu, April 8 - 637,305

1998 The highest known day was 7/4 with 585,354, but also know it was lower than 603,766

1997 Promise Keepers                 Sat, Oct 4 - 725,909

1996 Highest known day: 7/4 with 569,894, but know it was lower than 688,467 if a weekday or 725,909 if not

1995 Million Man March                 Mon, Oct 16 - 804,146 

1994 Elton John & Billy Joel concert at RFK Wed, July 20   - 603,706

1993 Clinton Inaugural 1                 Wen, Jan 20 - 811,257 

1992 Only know it was between 529,000 and 565,000

1991 Desert Storm Parade         Sat, June 8 - 786,358 Counted by hand

1990 New Kids on the Block concert Tue, July 17 - 577,800 

1989 George H.W. Bush Inauguration         Fri, Jan 20 - 604,089 

1988 Washington for Jesus rally         Fri, Apr. 29 - 565,000 (but?)

1987 No Event                 Thu, June 25 - 515,047 

1986 Highest known day: 7/4 with ~500,000 but know it was lower than 565,000

1985 Highest known day: 7/4 with ~550,000 but know it was lower than 565,000

1984 4th of July/ Beach Boys Concert         Wed, July 4 - ~ 470,000

1983 20th Anniversary of MLK March           Sat, Aug 27 -  ~370,000 (suspected)

1982 Only know it was between 303,074 and 400,000

1981 Solidarity Day         Sat, Sept 9 - ~400,000

1980 Rally for Jesus         Tue, April 29 - ~400,000 

1979 Energy Crisis                             Tue, June 19 - 306,059 

1978 Highest known day: 9/28 with 212,524 but ridership was up to 222000 by end of year

1977 Highest known day: 10/4 with 141,319 

1976 Opening Day                 Sat, Mar 27 -  51,260