Wednesday, April 8, 2026

How the parties should order their primaries

Parties choose their candidates for president with the primary/caucus system which seems reasonable. What is not reasonable is that it was not designed to pick a candidate who is most likely to win the election. If I ran a party, I'd ask the question " how can we best design the system to pick a general election winner" and this is my stab to change the order to do that. 

It's been well documented that the states that vote first in the primaries have an outsized voice in choosing the candidates for President for both parties. It therefore seems to make sense that the parties should take more control over the order they go in. I think they should reorder the primaries every election based on how close each state's vote was in the last one. And spread them out one (or more) a week instead of bunching them so that candidates can just roll into the next one. Along those lines I created a mock 25 week schedule (which would start in mid- January and end at the end of June). 

It makes no sense for South Carolina to go so early for Democrats since they're not going to win in South Carolina. Having a candidate popular in SC does the Democrats no good. Or the Republicans for that matter. 

Each week in my mock up has an "anchor" state (ordered by vote margin) and sometimes smaller states to fill it out so that. When a very large state is the anchor it is alone. The other weeks all have 10-11 million people. I threw the territories in where with their closest states were voting. 

In some cases I considered geography to try and keep neighbor states together. Here's what I got: 

1. Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Nevada 
2. Michigan 
3. Pennsylvania 
4. Georgia 
5. North Carolina 
6. Minnesota, New Mexico, Maine, Rhode Island 
7. Arizona, Iowa 
8. Virginia, Delaware 
9. New Jersey, Montana 
10. Illinois 
11. Colorado, Oregon 
12. Ohio
13. New York 
14. Florida, Puerto Rico, VI 
15. Texas 
16. South Carolina, Connecticut, South Dakota, North Dakota 
17. Washington, Idaho, Alaska 
18. Missouri, Mississippi, Vermont 
19. Indiana, Utah 
20. California 
21. Louisiana, Kentucky, Hawaii, Pacific territories 
22. Massachusetts, Arkansas 
23. Maryland, Oklahoma 
24. Tennessee, Kansas 
25. Alabama, Wyoming, DC, West Virginia, Nebraska 

By coincidence NH is still an early state, as is Nevada. Wisconsin would be a great place for the kick-off Primary.

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