There's a lot on the ballot this year, but it isn't all of equal importance. If you want to know how to rank things, here's my crack at it.
1. The Senate - If Democrats can win either house in Congress would shut down Trump's legislative agenda (which is not particularly brisk now) AND allow them to control Congressional investigations and oversight. But Senate control brings with it additional control of the courts and the executive through the power to confirm/or not confirm judges and members of the president's cabinet - including Supreme Court justices. This makes Senate control more important than House control, and why it is #1. One third of the Senate seats are up for grabs and Democrats will need to pick up two to take control and one to have a chance due to a vacancy. Theoretically, Democrats could win both the MN and MS special election seats and create a tie by early December, making those two seats slightly more important than others, but MS is unlikely and a tie doesn't do much for them unless they can peel off a senator here and there. If Democrats win the House, the Senate is partially redundant, but it's still #1 because of judges and appointees.
2. If GOP wins the Senate, the House - If the GOP wins the Senate, then the House becomes critical because it will either create or prevent single party rule for two more years. Every single House seat is up for re-election.]
3. Florida Voting Rights Restoration Initiative - This Florida ballot initiative would restore voting rights to an estimated 1.5 million people in Florida. While it wouldn't kick in until 2019, it could result in a net gain of 100,000 Democratic voters in 2020. Enough to change the state's outcome in the 2000 and 2016 presidential elections (and thus the winner in 2000), the last two Governor races, the 2004 Senate race and likely dozens of other House, state and local races.
4. Governors with a role in redistricting - There are 34 governors up for re-election in 2018. Most of them will play a role in redistricting after 2020, all of them will be able to impact the electorate in the 2020 presidential election (through purges of the voting rolls or decisions about where to place polls and when to keep them open). Some of these could create or destroy a "trifecta". A trifecta is when a single party controls the house, senate and governorship of a state. Ranking them based on their size, swing status and trifecta vulnerability and I rank them as such.
a. Trifectas - FL, PA, NY, IL, OH, GA, MI, WI, MN, MA, TN, MD, CO, OR, OK, KS,NM, IA, RI, NV, ME, NH
b. Others - TX, IN, SC, AL, AR, NE
6. State legislatures with a role in redistricting. There are several state legislatures up for election, but only some play a part in redistricting. Some of these could create or destroy a "trifecta". Ranking them based on their size, swing status and trifecta vulnerability and I rank them as such.
a. Trifectas - FL, PA, NY, IL, OH, GA, NC, MI, WI, MN-H, MA, TN, MD, CO, OR, OK, CT, IA, NV, KS, WV, NH, RI, MT
b. Others - TX, IN, MO, SC-H, AL, KY, AR, UT, NE-S, ME
7. Other Governors - Not all governors have a role in redistricting, but they do have oversight over elections, can appoint replacement senators, call elections to fill empty house seats and other such items. I've ranked them considering size (more seats impacted) and swing status.
a. Trifectas - AZ, CT, SD, AK, VT
b. Others - CA, HI, ID, WY
8. Other state legislatures - State legislatures can pass laws that change the electorate through voter ID or motor voter laws, for example, even if they don't have anything to do with redistricting. I've ranked them considering size and swing status. SD, AK-H, VT, WY. In addition a special election in Virginia could swing the House of Delegates into shared control.
a. Trifectas - WA, AZ, NM-H, NH, MT, DE, SD, AK-H, VT
b. Others - WY
9. North Carolina Ballot Initiatives - Three ballot initiatives in NC are being considered. One takes the power to appoint members of election boards and commissions away from the Governor and give it to leaders in the state House and Senate. The second weakens the amount of influence the Governor has in filling state Supreme Court vacancies and increases the legislature's. Both of these initiatives exist to weaken the power of the Democratic Governor and strengthen the Republican legislature. They would also weaken the election board by keeping it perpetually deadlocked. The third ballot measure creates a voter ID law.
10. If Dems win the Senate, the House - If Democrats win the Senate, then the House becomes redundant. But it would act as insurance in case a death or resignation puts the Senate back in play. And they would be able to carry out their own investigations and place added legislative pressure on or support for the President.
Thursday, October 25, 2018
Tuesday, October 23, 2018
Annotated list of Metrorail's Record-Setting Days
Since opening in 1976, Metrorail has set had at least 44 record setting days.
Below is the most complete list of reported record-setting days I could compile - with citations and notes. But this is not a complete list as it is clear that some days were not reported and others are unknown. In the early years, due to problems with the faregates, WMATA had trouble doing daily counts, and their effort to report record setting days was spotty. From 1976 to 1981, WMATA only did daily counts occasionally, though often on what they thought were high traffic days. WMATA made no effort to count daily ridership from 1981 to 1987, instead only counted monthly ridership. It wouldn't be until the early '90's, perhaps when the Park Service decided to stop making crowd size estimates, that WMATA made an effort to consistently report record-setting days. Furthermore, due to the aforementioned problems with the faregates, counts during the first 12 years are often estimates or have known flaws that were corrected with inconsistent methodologies.
Blue lines are for days when new stations or segments opened.
* signifies a gap and that there may be other records before this day - as reporting didn't connect this record to the prior one.
WP= The Washington Post
WS = The Washington Star
1. Eisen, Jack. "Subway Elegant for a Night." WP. 1/22/1977.
2. Feaver, Douglas B. "Blue Line Start Rocky But Popular." WP. 7/2/1977..
3. Feaver, Douglas B. "Trains Nearly on Schedule After Fourth." WP, 7/6/1977.
4. Feaver, Douglas B. "Metro Delays Shifting Bus Routes to Subways." WP. 7/15/1977.
5. Shelton, Isabelle. "Metro Happy About Line's First Week." WS. 7/9/1977.
6. Feaver, Douglas B. "Metro is Uncertain of Total Ridership." WP. 8/3/1977.
7. Crosby, Thomas "Another Woe for Metro - Its Computers Can't Count." ES. 9/16/1977.
8. "Metro Ridership Drops for Week Of Columbus Day." WP. 10/21/1977.
9. Feaver, Douglas B. "Metro Gobbles 6,000 Persons a day". WP. 2/15/1978.
10. Feaver, Douglas B. "Tomorrow Is Red Line Day in Md". WP. 2/5/1978.
11. "Subway Ridership Jumps". WS. 2/24/1978.
12. "Metro Ridership Record Set". WS. 2/25/1978.
13. "Another Record for Metro". WS. 3/23/1978.
14. "A Record for Metro". WS. 5/7/1978.
15. Feaver, Douglas B. "Subway Hours to Expand". WP. 4/21/1978.
16. "Higher Metro Fares?" WS. 6/15/1978.
17. "Riders Up; Breakdowns, too" WS. 6/23/1978.
18. "Subway Riders Set Record Thursday" WP. 9/30/1978.
19. Feaver, Douglas B. "Metro's Mark Visible, even if tracks aren't" WP. 1/14/1979.
20. Spencer, Duncan. "Farm Protest Costs Near $1 Million, Mall Sod Ruined" WS. 2/9/1979.
21. Shelton, Isablle. "Subway, Bus use continue to increase." WS. 6/27/1979.
22. Morgan, Thomas. "Suddenly, Metro Finds Its System Is Jammed." WP. 6/20/1979
23. Feaver, Douglas B. "Metro Shows Steady Gain In Ridership". WP. 5/23/1980.
24. "Rally-Goers Boost Ridership on Metro". WP. 5/1/1980.
25. Burgess, John. "Hello, Metro: You Listening?" WP. 9/25/1981.
26. Eisen, Jack. "Glorious Record for Metro." WP, 7/7/1984.
27. "Metro Reports Worst Crush At Downtown Subway Stops". WP. 7/5/1985.
28. Henderson, Nell. "Metro Unveils Expansion Plan". WP. 5/1/1987.
29. "Redskins Fans Set Record for Metro". WP. 2/8/1988.
30. Fehr, Stephen C; Jordan, Mary. "Parade Hands Metro Two Records". WP. 6/13/1991.
31. Layton, Lyndsey. "Mass Transit Popularity Surges in U.S.". WP. 4/30/2000.
32. "Metrorail sets new Sunday record for highest ridership". Metro Press Release. 1/19/2009.
33. "Immigration Rally sets Second Highest Ridership Day in Metrorail History". Metro Press Release. 4/11/2006.
34. "Metrorail sets new record for highest ridership day of all time". Metro Press Release. 1/20/2009.
35."Metro sets new record for highest ridership day of all time". Metro Press Release. 1/21/2009.
36. Duggan, Paul. "Here’s what Metro’s Inauguration Day and Women’s March ridership numbers really mean". WP. 1/22/2017.
Below is the most complete list of reported record-setting days I could compile - with citations and notes. But this is not a complete list as it is clear that some days were not reported and others are unknown. In the early years, due to problems with the faregates, WMATA had trouble doing daily counts, and their effort to report record setting days was spotty. From 1976 to 1981, WMATA only did daily counts occasionally, though often on what they thought were high traffic days. WMATA made no effort to count daily ridership from 1981 to 1987, instead only counted monthly ridership. It wouldn't be until the early '90's, perhaps when the Park Service decided to stop making crowd size estimates, that WMATA made an effort to consistently report record-setting days. Furthermore, due to the aforementioned problems with the faregates, counts during the first 12 years are often estimates or have known flaws that were corrected with inconsistent methodologies.
Blue lines are for days when new stations or segments opened.
* signifies a gap and that there may be other records before this day - as reporting didn't connect this record to the prior one.
| Trips | Date | Event | Note | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51,260 1 | 3/27/1976 | Opening Day, Red Line, Farragut to RI Ave | Metro free all day | |
| --- | 12/15/1976 | Red Line, Gallery Place Station | ||
| --- | 1/17/1977 | Red Line, Dupont to Farragut | ||
| 68,0231 | 1/20/1977 | Inauguration of Jimmy Carter | Metro free for 2.5 hours | |
| ~102,0002 | 7/2/1977 | Blue Line, DCA to RFK | Only an estimate was given | |
| 103,0123 | 7/4/1977 | 4th of July | Open late till Midnight, free after 9pm | |
| ~105,0004 | July 1977 | No event | Weekly average. No hardware to measure daily automatically5 | |
| ~120,000*6 | 8/1/1977 | Blue line bus reroute | 210 buses changed to feed subway. | |
| 127,558*7 | 9/7/1977 | No Event | Not presented as a record. | |
| 132,1987 | 9/9/1977 | No Event | Not presented as a record. | |
| 141,319*8 | 10/4/1977 | 1st day of restricted parking near DC Metro stations | ||
| ~143,000*9 | 1/20/1978 | No Event | Not presented as a record. | |
| 150,372*10 | 1/27/1978 | Winter weather | Last day of week w/daily weather-related traffic jams. | |
| --- | 2/6/1978 | Red Line, RI Ave. to Silver Spring. Also start of parking meters in SS. | ||
| 160,869*11 | ~2/10/1978 | No Event | weekly average for week of 2/10/78. | |
| 163,779*11 | ~2/17/1978 | No Event | weekly average for week of 2/17/78. | |
| 174,657*11 | 2/22/1978 | Red Line bus rerouting | 150 buses rerouted on 2/21. | |
| 182,17512 | 2/24/1978 | No Event | ||
| 190,526*13 | 3/17/1978 | No Event | Good weather and spring tourists | |
| 192,94913 | 3/22/1978 | No Event | Good weather and spring tourists | |
| 194,185*14 | 4/5/1978 | Cherry Blossom Festival | On 4/21 reported 193,000 trips "on several occasions"15 | |
| 197,20114 | 5/3/1978 | Sun Day | Solar energy benefit concert w/Jackson Browne | |
| 198,339*16 | 6/9/1978 | Bullets NBA Championship Parade | Also high ridership on May 12th due to bus driver "Wildcat" Strike | |
| 202,24416 | 6/13/1978 | No Event | Good weather and tourist season | |
| 210,25117 | 6/20/1978 | No Event | ||
| 210,94218 | 6/28/1978 | No Event | ||
| 212,52418 | 9/28/1978 | No Event | First Thursday after hours extended from 8pm to Midnight | |
| --- | 11/17/1978 | Orange Line, Stadium Armory to New Carrrollton. | ||
| ~220,000*19 | ~1/14/1979 | No Event | Weekly average; following rerouting of 42 buses and restriction of 3400 DC parking spaces in December | |
| ~277,000*20 | 2/5/1979 | Tractorcade | ||
| 279,01521 | 6/13/1979 | 1979 Oil Crisis | ||
| 283,16321 | 6/14/1979 | 1979 Oil Crisis | ||
| 301,39822 | 6/15/1979 | 1979 Oil Crisis | This number was reported twice, as was 301,75821. Alternate report has 6/19 ridership of 306,059, but seems wrong based on later reports. | |
| --- | 12/1/1979 | Orange Line, Rosslynn to Ballston. Metro Subsidy for employees start in January. | ||
| 317,96423 | ~3/26/1980 | No Event | Weekly average for week of 3/26/1980. | |
| ~400,00024 | ~4/29/1980 | Washington for Jesus | Metro free all day. Hard to get a count. | |
| --- | 11/22/1980 | Blue Line, Stadium to Addison Road. Buses rerouted in January. | ||
| ~400,00025 | 9/19/1981 | Solidarity Day March | Similar estimate as prior event, but also reported as a record. Metro free all morning. | |
| --- | 12/5/1981 | Red Line, Dupont to Van Ness. Buses rerouted in January. | ||
| --- | 4/30/1983 | Yellow Line, Pentagon to Gallery Place. | ||
| ~370,00026 | 8/27/1983 | 20th Anniversary MLK March on Washington | Was reported later as a record, but not contemporaneous. Unlikely because (1) Estimate is lower than that for Solidarity Day. (2) Crowd size estimate by Park Police was the same, but (a) Metro wasn't free (b) Many visitors came to town by bus and then marched in, as marching was key to the event. | |
| ~470,000*26 | 7/4/1984 | Free Beach Boys 4th of July concert on Mall | ||
| --- | 8/25/1984 | Red Line, Van Ness to Grosvenor. | ||
| --- | 12/15/1984 | Red Line, Grosvenor to Shady Grove. Buses rerouted in January. | ||
| ~470,000-500,000*27 | 7/4/1985 | Free Beach Boys 4th of July concert on Mall | Crowd on the Mall was larger than in 1984. Reports of crush loading. Likely record-setting. | |
| --- | 7/7/1986 | Orange Line, Ballston to Vienna. | ||
| >500,000*28 | 4/22/1987 | No event | First day over 500,000. Likely several records set in days before and after. | |
| 515,047*29 | 6/25/1987 | No event | ||
| 564,26529 | 2/3/1988 | Redskins Super Bowl victory parade | ||
| ~565,00030 | 4/29/1988 | Washington for Jesus '88 | ||
| 604,08931 | 1/20/1989 | George H. W. Bush Inauguration | ||
| --- | 9/22/1990 | Red Line, Silver Spring to Wheaton. | ||
| --- | 5/11/1991 | Yellow Line, Gallery Place to U Street. | ||
| 786,35830,32 | 6/8/1991 | National Victory Celebration | Set a weekend day record that lasted 18 years, until the Rally to Restore Sanity and/or Fear. | |
| --- | 6/15/1991 | Blue Line, DCA to Van Dorn. | ||
| --- | 12/25/1991 | Green Line, U St to Anacostia. | ||
| 811,25731 | 1/20/1993 | First inauguration of Bill Clinton | Longest lasting record, withstanding the Million Man March, Capitals 2000 playoff run, World Cup Soccer, '97 Promises Keepers gathering, and the 2003 Assemblies of God meeting. | |
| --- | 12/11/1993 | Green Line, Fort Totten to Greenbelt. | ||
| --- | 6/29/1997 | Blue Line, Van Dorn to Franconia. | ||
| --- | 7/25/1998 | Red Line, Wheaton to Glenmont. | ||
| --- | 9/18/1999 | Green Line, U Street to Fort Totten. | ||
| --- | 1/13/2001 | Green Line, Anacostia to Branch Avenue. | ||
| 850,63633 | 6/9/2004 | Funeral Procession of Ronald Reagan | ||
| --- | 11/20/2004 | Red Line, NoMa Station. | ||
| --- | 12/18/2004 | Blue Line, Addison Road to Largo. | ||
| 854,63834 | 7/11/2008 | Baseball, Women of Faith conference, tourists | This is really a baseload record as neither of those events were exceptional, though baseball game was 11th highest attendance of season. | |
| 866,68134 | 1/19/2009 | King Day of Service - Obama Inauguration | ||
| ~1,120,00035 | 1/20/2009 | First inauguration of Barack Obama | Estimate only. Margin of error and method unknown. Highest counted day was 1/21/2017, the Women's March, with 1,001,61335 trips (also the weekend day record). | |
| --- | 7/26/2014 | Silver Line, E. Falls Church to Wiehle. | ||
WP= The Washington Post
WS = The Washington Star
1. Eisen, Jack. "Subway Elegant for a Night." WP. 1/22/1977.
2. Feaver, Douglas B. "Blue Line Start Rocky But Popular." WP. 7/2/1977..
3. Feaver, Douglas B. "Trains Nearly on Schedule After Fourth." WP, 7/6/1977.
4. Feaver, Douglas B. "Metro Delays Shifting Bus Routes to Subways." WP. 7/15/1977.
5. Shelton, Isabelle. "Metro Happy About Line's First Week." WS. 7/9/1977.
6. Feaver, Douglas B. "Metro is Uncertain of Total Ridership." WP. 8/3/1977.
7. Crosby, Thomas "Another Woe for Metro - Its Computers Can't Count." ES. 9/16/1977.
8. "Metro Ridership Drops for Week Of Columbus Day." WP. 10/21/1977.
9. Feaver, Douglas B. "Metro Gobbles 6,000 Persons a day". WP. 2/15/1978.
10. Feaver, Douglas B. "Tomorrow Is Red Line Day in Md". WP. 2/5/1978.
11. "Subway Ridership Jumps". WS. 2/24/1978.
12. "Metro Ridership Record Set". WS. 2/25/1978.
13. "Another Record for Metro". WS. 3/23/1978.
14. "A Record for Metro". WS. 5/7/1978.
15. Feaver, Douglas B. "Subway Hours to Expand". WP. 4/21/1978.
16. "Higher Metro Fares?" WS. 6/15/1978.
17. "Riders Up; Breakdowns, too" WS. 6/23/1978.
18. "Subway Riders Set Record Thursday" WP. 9/30/1978.
19. Feaver, Douglas B. "Metro's Mark Visible, even if tracks aren't" WP. 1/14/1979.
20. Spencer, Duncan. "Farm Protest Costs Near $1 Million, Mall Sod Ruined" WS. 2/9/1979.
21. Shelton, Isablle. "Subway, Bus use continue to increase." WS. 6/27/1979.
22. Morgan, Thomas. "Suddenly, Metro Finds Its System Is Jammed." WP. 6/20/1979
23. Feaver, Douglas B. "Metro Shows Steady Gain In Ridership". WP. 5/23/1980.
24. "Rally-Goers Boost Ridership on Metro". WP. 5/1/1980.
25. Burgess, John. "Hello, Metro: You Listening?" WP. 9/25/1981.
26. Eisen, Jack. "Glorious Record for Metro." WP, 7/7/1984.
27. "Metro Reports Worst Crush At Downtown Subway Stops". WP. 7/5/1985.
28. Henderson, Nell. "Metro Unveils Expansion Plan". WP. 5/1/1987.
29. "Redskins Fans Set Record for Metro". WP. 2/8/1988.
30. Fehr, Stephen C; Jordan, Mary. "Parade Hands Metro Two Records". WP. 6/13/1991.
31. Layton, Lyndsey. "Mass Transit Popularity Surges in U.S.". WP. 4/30/2000.
32. "Metrorail sets new Sunday record for highest ridership". Metro Press Release. 1/19/2009.
33. "Immigration Rally sets Second Highest Ridership Day in Metrorail History". Metro Press Release. 4/11/2006.
34. "Metrorail sets new record for highest ridership day of all time". Metro Press Release. 1/20/2009.
35."Metro sets new record for highest ridership day of all time". Metro Press Release. 1/21/2009.
36. Duggan, Paul. "Here’s what Metro’s Inauguration Day and Women’s March ridership numbers really mean". WP. 1/22/2017.
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